What is quantitative political analysis and why it matters
The scientific method in political research
AI as a partner in data analysis
Course logistics and expectations
Getting set up with our computing environment
An impartial evaluation of me
Welcome to GOVT 10
This class is about teaching you how to:
Think about politics scientifically
Work with data
Thrive in an AI-dominated future
Teaching in the Age of AI
AI has fundamentally changed the world, and we need to work WITH it, not against it.
Some professors are pretending AI doesn’t exist, others are dejected by its rise, but our job is to teach students the skills they actually need.
AI is what you will use in the real world–that is what this class embraces and teaches.
Using Data to Learn About Politics
2024 US Presidential Election Results by State
Different Views of the Same Election
2024 US Presidential Election Results by County
Population-Weighted View
2024 US Presidential Election Results by Population
What is “Quantitative” Political Analysis?
Quantitative political analysis is the systematic use of numbers, data, and statistical methods to understand political phenomena.
It’s how we:
Test theories about how politics works
Measure public opinion accurately
Evaluate policies to see if they actually work
Predict election outcomes and political behavior
Make evidence-based decisions rather than relying on intuition alone
Why This Matters More Than Ever
The Data Revolution in Politics
We live in an unprecedented age of political data. Every day, millions of data points are generated about political behavior:
Voting records - Every vote cast by every legislator
Campaign finance - Detailed records of political donations
Public opinion polls - Continuous measurement of citizen attitudes
Social media activity - Real-time political engagement data
Election results - Precinct-level voting patterns
The question isn’t whether data shapes politics - it’s whether you’ll understand how to interpret and use that data responsibly.
Informed Citizenship
Even if you never work in politics professionally, these skills make you a better citizen.
You’ll be able to:
Critically evaluate claims politicians make with “data”
Understand what polls really mean (and when to be skeptical)
Recognize misleading statistics in campaign advertising
Make sense of election forecasts and their uncertainty
Participate more effectively in democratic discourse
Political Science is (Sometimes) a Science
Some people question whether political science is really “science.” The answer is that it can be - if we follow the same basic scientific method as other disciplines:
The Scientific Method in Political Research:
Observe patterns in political behavior
Hypothesize about causes and relationships
Test hypotheses with data and experiments
Replicate findings across different contexts
Revise theories based on evidence
A Historical Example: John Snow
In 1854, in Soho, London was struck by a severe cholera outbreak that killed over 600 people in just a few weeks. Within just 10 days, over 500 people had died, and panic was spreading through the city.
The Conventional Wisdom
Most people believed cholera spread through “bad air” or miasma. Medical authorities were convinced that diseases like cholera were caused by polluted air from rotting organic matter.
Dr. John Snow
Dr. John Snow, a physician and early epidemiologist, challenged the prevailing miasma theory with a radical alternative hypothesis: cholera was transmitted through contaminated water, not airborne particles.
But theoretical disagreement alone was insufficient—Snow needed empirical evidence to overturn established medical doctrine.
The critical question became: how could he systematically test his water-borne transmission theory against the dominant paradigm?
The Data-Driven Solution
Snow systematically mapped the data.
First he placed a mark on a map for every person who died of cholera
The Data-Driven Solution
He then:
Marked the locations of all public water pumps in the area
Looked for patterns in the data
What the Data Revealed
Location
Deaths from Cholera
Water Source
Near Broad Street Pump
578
Broad Street Well
Near Rupert Street Pump
12
Different Well
Lion Brewery
0
Private Well
Workhouse
5
Private Well
Evidence-Based Action
Snow’s evidence was so compelling that local authorities agreed to remove the handle from the Broad Street pump.
The cholera outbreak ended shortly thereafter, saving countless lives.
This is Quantitative Analysis in Action:
Systematic data collection - mapping every death
Pattern recognition - seeing the clustering around one pump
Evidence-based conclusions - water, not air, was the cause
Real-world policy impact - removing the pump handle saved lives
Our Course Philosophy: AI as Partner, Not Replacement
The Traditional Approach is Becoming Obsolete
The traditional approach is becoming obsolete:
Memorizing equations
Debugging code line by line
Struggling with programming details
In 2025, successful data analysts focus on intellectual work:
Understanding what questions to ask
Designing appropriate analyses
Interpreting results correctly
Communicating findings effectively
This Course Reflects That Reality
We use AI as a powerful assistant that:
Handles the technical implementation
Allows us to focus on higher-order thinking that no AI can replace
You’ll learn to be sophisticated consumers and creators of quantitative political analysis, equipped with:
Technical skills
Critical thinking abilities
Our Focus: Critical Thinking Over Syntax
Rather than memorizing programming syntax, we focus on:
Understanding concepts and their applications to real political problems
Interpreting results and their political implications in context
Asking the right questions and designing appropriate research strategies
Verifying logic and critically evaluating AI suggestions for accuracy and appropriateness
Recognizing limitations of both data and analytical methods
Communicating findings clearly to diverse audiences
Why This Approach Matters
When you graduate and work in political consulting, policy analysis, journalism, or research, you’ll use AI daily.